» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present.
I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «
Chris Camillo, 2023
Chris Camillo, 2023
Showing posts with label SPX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPX. Show all posts
Friday, March 15, 2024
Monday, January 8, 2024
S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024
» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «
Willi O. Sucher, 1937.
Thursday, December 21, 2023
S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ Projection into April 2024
Dec 21, 2023 (Thu) = May 10, 2005 (Tue)
In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops.
Jan 3 (Wed) 22:30 = 270° = Last Quarter
Jan 11 (Thu) 06:57 = 0° = New Moon
Jan 17 (Wed) 22:52 = 90° = First Quarter
Jan 25 (Thu) 12:53 = 180° = Full Moon
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle In Stocks │ Edward R. Dewey
Another cycle that has done all in its power to keep cycle scientists humble is one averaging 40.68 months in length. It has been present in industrial common-stock prices since 1871 and was discovered in 1912 by a New York group of investors. These gentlemen had learned that the Rothschilds had analyzed British consols (government obligations) and had broken up the price fluctuations into a series of repeating curves that had been combined and used for forecasting. The New York group hired a mathematician to discover the secret formula of the Rothschilds, and working with the Dow-Jones Railroad Averages, he discovered a forty-one-month cycle, plus three others, which his employers used to help them invest in the market. Apparently they were very successful around World War I.
Some ten years after the original discovery, Professor W. L. Crum, of Harvard, noted a cycle of "39, 40, or 41 months" in monthly commercial-paper rates in New York. Almost simultaneously, Professor Joseph Kitchin, also of Harvard, discovered a cycle that he called forty months in six economic time series, bank clearings, commodity prices, and interest rates in both Great Britain and the United States from 1890 to 1922. As far as I know, it was not until 1935, twenty-three years after the original discovery, that this cycle was again noticed in the stock market. Our old friend Chapin Hoskins, who knew nothing of the earlier work, discovered this cycle in many series of price and production figures, including common-stock prices. Early in 1938 he made an extensive study of this cycle for one of the large investment-trust services.
Figure 38 shows the forty-one-month cycle (now refined to 40.68 months) from 1868 through 1945. As you can see, while its waves are not identical to an ideal 40.68 wave, which is represented by the broken zigzag, there is an amazing correspondence between them. This cycle persisted through wars and peace, good times and depressions.
Then, in 1946, something strange happened to our cycle. Almost as if some giant hand had reached down and pushed it, the cycle stumbled, and by the time it had regained its equilibrium it was marching completely out of step from the ideal cadence it had maintained for so many years. As you can see in Figure 39, it has regained the approximate beat of forty-one months or so, as before, but its behavior now appears upside down on our graph.
Figure 38 shows the forty-one-month cycle (now refined to 40.68 months) from 1868 through 1945. As you can see, while its waves are not identical to an ideal 40.68 wave, which is represented by the broken zigzag, there is an amazing correspondence between them. This cycle persisted through wars and peace, good times and depressions.
Then, in 1946, something strange happened to our cycle. Almost as if some giant hand had reached down and pushed it, the cycle stumbled, and by the time it had regained its equilibrium it was marching completely out of step from the ideal cadence it had maintained for so many years. As you can see in Figure 39, it has regained the approximate beat of forty-one months or so, as before, but its behavior now appears upside down on our graph.
Scores of explanations and reams of paper have been expended to explain this behavior. We are familiar with most of the possibilities, such as distortion by random behavior, two or more other cycles of near lengths, and even a general public knowledge of this particular cycle, which may have had a distorting effect on its timing. But, in truth, no one can positively explain what happened in 1946 any more than they can explain the regularity of the rhythm for all the years that preceded it.
42-Month Cycle in the DJIA (weekly bars), March 2020 - October 2023.
Quoted from:
Edward R. Dewey & Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.
Edward R. Dewey & Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen
| Date | Sun's Longitude Position | Effect on US Stock Indexes |
| 2023 12 08 (Fri) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative = low |
| 2023 12 12 (Tue) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2023 12 16 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive = high |
| 2023 12 28 (Thu) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 02 (Tue) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 06 (Sat) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 19 (Fri) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 30 (Tue) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 03 (Sat) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 06 (Tue) | = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 18 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 23 (Fri) | = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 24 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees | negative |
| 2024 03 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 11 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 24 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 31 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees | positive |
| 2024 04 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 13 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 26 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 08 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 25 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 06 (Thu) | = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 07 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 08 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 29 (Sat) | = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 04 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 10 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 24 (Wed) | = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 29 (Mon) | = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees | positive |
| 2024 08 09 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees | negative |
| 2024 08 10 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 02 (Mon) | = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 04 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 05 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 20 (Fri) | = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 24 (Tue) | = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 07 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 14 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 22 (Tue) | = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 25 (Fri) | = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 27 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees | negative |
| 2024 11 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 21 (Thu) | = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 25 (Mon) | = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 08 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 12 (Thu) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 15 (Sun) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 27 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 06 (Mon) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 30 (Thu) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2025 02 03 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are
generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year.
So this
is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
Quoted from:
Solar Ephemeris.
Friday, December 8, 2023
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023
.png)
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are
generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year.
So this
is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP
2024 01 02 (Tue) = Sun @ 11° CAP
Solar Ephemeris.
Sunday, October 16, 2022
Panic & Stock Market Crash into End of October ? | Lars von Thienen
Lars von Thienen (Oct 16, 2022) - The coming weeks from October 17 to October 30 will be fascinating. One of the critical time cycles that will come into play next week are the so-called "Dark Days" cycles of past crashes.
[...] The chart shows us 4 cyclic patterns now in place surrounding market panics:
- The “Dark Days” fall on 21.-22. October next week. Compared to 1929 and even if the markets have already gone down, this has given the index another -30% correction with extremely heavy selling.
- The leading movement is synchronized with the Jewish High Holidays: From a leading top in the market (point 1), there is a correction to Rosh Hashanah (2). Rosh Hashanah marks the beginning of the Jewish calendar. From there, a very small rally begins, ending on Yom Kippur (3). Yom Kippur is the emotional climax of the Jewish faith’s high holy days. This cyclical pattern is not well known - but has been seen in all major crashes in the past. See also the alignment in the chart in 1929.
- The next cyclical pattern which is seen at financial panics is the so called “Puetz crash window”. According to that pattern, all US crashed had the same important 6-weeks-window signature around a solar eclipse. According to that pattern a panic begins near a full moon that occurs within 6-weeks of a solar eclipse. This year, the solar eclipse occurs on 25. October.
[...] The cyclic configuration we recognize here is unique and does not occur frequently in this bundling.
Tuesday, October 11, 2022
Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA | Carol S. Mull
Carol S. Mull (1989) - Humankind moves through periods of optimism, expansion, anxiety, depression and panic, as dictated by the magnetic winds that govern the universe. These cycles affect market trading and can be forecast by observing and analyzing planetary phenomena. There are at least twenty different planetary, solar, or lunar movements that affect the market in a significant way. I know of no computer program that utilizes more than five or six of them. Below is a summary of the most useful, listed from those with the shortest effect through those lasting decades.
 |
| Cafe Astrology .com - This Month’s Ephemeris |
A FEW HOURS OR MINUTES
Planet to Midheaven: You may have noticed that the DIJA will move up or down at about the same time each day for a week or more. This is because the planet and its aspects that is directly overhead the market location at any given time-of-day will affect the mood of the trader. Hence, if Saturn is crossing the Midheaven of the New York Stock Exchange location of Manhattan Island in New York at about 1:00 p.m., the market may have opened up, but will tend to drop from noon until 1:00 p.m., and may then turn up again. This trend will continue for about a week, with the timing being a little later each day until it finally moves beyond the time of the market closing. Jupiter in the same position will bring a rise in market prices. Neptune over the market Midheaven will bring increased trading in oil stocks. Uranus over the Midheaven will produce an erratic market.
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| Planetary Hours Calculator |
I know a daytrader who runs an astrological chart on his computer every fifteen minutes for New York City and then acts accordingly. This planet-to-Midheaven indicator is good for the hourly wobbles in the market and should always be considered against the general trend.
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| Solar, Lunar and Planets Ephemerides - Rise - Midheaven Transit - Set |
Sun and Moon Aspects: The astrological aspects that are easiest to learn and use are those between the Sun and the Moon. These can be found in an Almanac, ephemeris or astrological calendar. The Sun and Moon are conjunct at the New Moon and, unless overshadowed by heavier aspects, the market can be expected to move upward at that time.
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| Monthly Lunation Cycle 8 Lunar Sun-Moon 45° Phases |
The Sun and Moon are in square aspect (90°) at the first quarter and the last quarter and a bear market is the normal result. The Sun and Moon are in opposition (180°) at the Full Moon, which usually brings a somewhat bullish market, but is not as positive as the New Moon. Sun/Moon trines (120°) come halfway between the opposition and the first quarter or last quarter. They are indicators of bull markets.
Eclipses are really just super New or Full Moons and unless aspected, produce little market change at the time. However, they sensitize a certain degree in the sky and whenever another planet comes into aspect with that point, LOOK OUT. The Noon or Mercury to that point will produce an erratic unpredictable market. When Mars comes into aspect with that point, the market is likely to fall sharply.
 |
| TimeAndDate.com - Eclipses and Transits Visible in New York |
The Total Picture - Positive or Negative: A tool used by several financial astrologers is to tally all the aspects in the sky on a given day. This method is described by both LCdr. David Williams in his book, Financial Astrology, and by Donald Bradley in his book, Stock Market Prediction, but most users put their own construction on the methods described by Williams and Bradley.
The usual method is to list the aspects that are within a degree of orb on a given day over New York City within market hours, plus the more important ones that fall after or before the market is open. A numerical value is then assigned to each aspect. Conjunctions are ten; sextiles are 3; trines 10; squares 8, and oppositions six. In general, conjunctions, sextiles and trines are positive, whiles squares and oppositions are negative but this can be overridden by the nature of the planets involved. Saturn and Mars are always negative. Jupiter, Venus and Sun are always positive.
The usual method is to list the aspects that are within a degree of orb on a given day over New York City within market hours, plus the more important ones that fall after or before the market is open. A numerical value is then assigned to each aspect. Conjunctions are ten; sextiles are 3; trines 10; squares 8, and oppositions six. In general, conjunctions, sextiles and trines are positive, whiles squares and oppositions are negative but this can be overridden by the nature of the planets involved. Saturn and Mars are always negative. Jupiter, Venus and Sun are always positive.
 |
| Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices |
When the list is complete, add your negative column and then your positive column. If you have -86 and +13, you should definitely expect a down-day at the market. Plus 72 and minus 14 would indicate a bull market. This same method of tallying aspects can be used on a hourly basis or even fifteen minutes.
A FEW DAYS
Moon’s Daily Motion: The average daily motion of the Moon is 13.17749 degrees, but it fluctuates from 11.54’ to 14.36’, gaining in daily speed for nine to thirteen days and then losing speed for nine to thirteen days, depending on the season of the year. Whenever the Moon is gaining in daily speed the market tends to move upward; whenever the Moon is losing daily velocity, the market tends to move downward. This can account for small wobbles on a general trend line. (I find it of interest that this average thirteen day motion correlates with the Mayan calendar of thirteen day cycles, which they grouped into 260 day cycles (13x20). I am working on an overall plan to tie the market to the Mayan calendar, but it is not complete.)
 |
| Sun-Moon Daily Arc Move on Sphere = Longitude Speed |
Sunspots: Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading. The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point, either up or down. Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a heliocentric line-up with the Earth at 0°, 45°, and 90°, but lesser activity produces the well-known Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks [see also HERE].
 |
| Jan Alvestad - Solar Terrestrial Activity Report |
A very good illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun, increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square the Sun. So, be aware that heliocentric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down.
Powerful Aspects: Certain aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter.
 |
| National Astronomical Observatory of Japan - Celestial Phenomena |
A FEW WEEKS
The Planet Mercury: Mercury does rule trading and it alone can give you a reasonably good forecast. Whenever you see a Sun-Mercury conjunction, you may expect a high volume day that is very bullish. These happen about every six weeks. Mercury's daily motion is a very important market indicator. That is, whatever the daily motion of Mercury is increasing, the market is likely to move upward and whenever Mercury's velocity is decreasing, the market trend is downward. This has nothing to do with retrograde or forward motion.
 |
| Retrograde Planets Calendar |
It is the increase or decrease of velocity that counts and the direction does not matter. When Mercury is stationery or nearly so, the market has a very low volume and is bearish. If Mercury is rapidly gaining in velocity, the market gains rapidly. If Mercury is gaining velocity slowly, the market is up a little. The tone of the market can be discerned by the actions of Mercury .
Seasonal Highs and Lows: The market is usually up January 9th through the 18th. This is because the Sun reaches 23°-25° Capricorn in mid-January, which produces a grand trine with Mercury at 24° Taurus in the NY Stock Exchange chart, Sun at 26° Taurus in the NYSE chart, Neptune at 20° Virgo in the chart of the USA, and Pluto at 24° Capricorn in the chart of the USA. A similar effect happens each September, when transit Sun reaches 18°-27° Virgo.
In fact, the degree 24°-26° Taurus is important to stock exchanges around the world. The New York Stock Exchange has Sun and Mercury in that area, Tokyo Exchange has Sun, Amsterdam Exchange has Sun and Pluto, Budapest Exchange has Venus, Lisbon Exchange has Jupiter, London Exchange has Sun, Melbourne Exchange has Venus and Uranus, Toronto Exchange has Jupiter opposite, Zurich Exchange has Venus and Pluto. It is easy to see why the markets so often act in unison.
 |
| Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun |
LONG TERM TRENDS
Venus Daily Motion: For longer term trends, I depend upon the increasing and decreasing of the velocity of Venus in the same way as the velocity of Moon and Mercury were used. This indicator points toward a lower 1999 than 1998.
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| Venus' Daily Motion |
The Outer Planets: Very long term trends changes are marked by the aspects of Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. A very good book about this is THE EGG OF COLUMBUS by George Bayer, which pretends to be describing a banquet or feast. If you set charts for the dates given in the book, you will find exact aspects of the outer planets. Enough said? These long-term trends have been charted as cycles of varying lengths, but for exact work, you will need to work from the helio-centric aspects of the outer planets.
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| HeavensAbove.com - Planet Summary |
Mars Aspects: The planet Mars acts as a "trigger" for certain undesirable long-term stock market movements, whenever this planet is square or opposite one of the outer planets. That is, the outer planetary aspects set the long-term trends, but Mars produces the action. The following aspects are especially bad for the market: Mars conjunct Saturn, Mars square Neptune, Mars opposite Jupiter, Mars in opposition, regardless of the planet. In contrast, stock prices have consistently risen during the thirty days just before a conjunction of Mars with Jupiter or Mercury.
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| Geocentric and Heliocentric Aspect Search Engine (500BC - 2500AD) |
CONCLUSION:
These are some of the more important astro indicators of DJIA trends. Applying them is not a quick study. Instead, it requires several years of blending the various factors, until a certain "wisdom" develops. Above all, you should always be aware of both political and economic happenings around the world for these will provide the background for your research.
See also:
Monday, October 10, 2022
Lunar Phases and Stock Returns | Kathy Yuan et al.
Kathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu (2002) - This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock returns for a sample of 48 countries. We find strong global evidence that stock returns are lower on days around a full moon than on days around a new moon. Constructing a lunar trading strategy, we find that the magnitude of this return difference is roughly 4.2 percent per annum.
Since lunar phases are likely to be related to investor mood and are not related to economic activities, our findings are thus not consistent with the predictions of traditional asset pricing theories that assume fully rational investors. The positive association we find between lunar phases and stock returns suggests that it might be valuable to go beyond a rational asset pricing framework to explore the psychological effects of investor behavior on stock returns.
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| Figure 1 - Average Daily Return of the Global Portfolio by Lunar Dates |
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| Figure 2 - Average Daily Stock Returns of Global Portfolio by Lunar Windows |
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| Figure 3 - Distribution of Full Moon Days on Days of Week |
Quoted from:
Kathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu (2002) - Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phases and Stock Returns.
Kathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu (2002) - Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phases and Stock Returns.
See also:
AstroSeek.com (2022) - Moon Aspects - October 2022
Carol S. Mull (198?) - The Lunar Cycle (disjointed find and fragment of unknown source and context)
Carol S. Mull (1989) - Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA
Carol S. Mull (198?) - The Lunar Cycle (disjointed find and fragment of unknown source and context)
Carol S. Mull (1989) - Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA
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