S&P 500 Yearly and Quarterly Levels | April to June 2024

At the end of the first week of 2024 the S&P 500 breached the Yearly Mid (R)esistence Level 1 (YMR1) at 4,781 to the upside. In March the S&P 500 consolidated above the YR1, and on April 1 we saw a reversal at the (Q)arterly (M)id (R)esistence Level 1 (QMR1) at 5,228. 

 

The third down week of April (the third week of the second quater) took out the March low and now trades below the second quarters (Q)uarterly (P)ivot (P)oint (QPP) at 5,059 at the lower channel line that includes all price action since the October 27, 2023 low.

 

 

 

 

 

The entire first quarter of 2024 extended the 2023 fourth quarter's upswing (X). ICT Seasonality and Quarterly Theory qualify 2024 having a XAMD pattern. April and May/June (A)ccumulation, May/June to November (M)anipulation, November to Year End a Reversal, a strong Directional Move and some Distribution. Monday, April 1 - the 90th calendar day of 2024 and the first trading day of the second quarter - made a new high and turned down. QMS1 at 4,956, QS1 at 4,851 and YMR1 at 4,781 are the next downside targets.  

 

 Everything is timed and measured. Do the math.

Third week of the Three Week Cycle and three pushes to the downside on weekly and daily timeframes. 

From 5,278 to 5,000.

Some U$ 90 per week. A mere -4.55% so far this month. Old Daily, Weekly and Monthly Lows were taken out. 'The Iron 50.05% Rule' suggests this down-move is over.  

After a Directional Third Week in the Three Week Cycle the Weekly Marker Maker Templates for a Forth Trading Week of any Calendar Month allow (1.) Brief Consolidation and Trend Continuation AND (2.) Daily, Weekly, Monthly Reversals. 

Average Daily Range (6) U$ 78.9. Average Weekly Range (6) U$ 112.5.

April 19 (Fri) or April 22 (Mon) daily reversal likely. 

Upside target: low of Week 2 of the Three Week Cycle = YR1 at 5,110.

Downside targets: QMS1 at 4,965 and QS1 at 4,853.

The function of 50.05 % retracements. Market Structure and Liquidity. Highs & Lows (sessions, days, weeks, etc.). Understanding calculation of Pivot Points, Supply & Demand Levels/Orderblocks in any segment and time-frame in all Market Maker Models/Market Making Schemes. The Three Day Cycle. The Three Week Cycle. Price and Time = One-Two-Three. Thursday, April 18 is Trading Day #9 since the April 1st reversal (not counting inside days). 

Down from 5,478 to the Quarterly Pivot Level at 5,059. This is the most important reference level for any market moves into end of June. 

2024 is Year 3/1 in the 'Four Year Cycle' = 36-54 Months = 4-6 Nine Month Cycles = 12-18 Quarters. 

The 2024 Yearly Pivot Point/Level AND the 2024 second quarter's Pivot Point/Level are at 4,456.

 

Reference:

 ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss - Revealing Proven Methods for Profiting in the Market.

 

Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions Soon | Allen Reminick

The S&P market has been behaving as expected. It looks as if April 15 (Mon) or so could be a low followed by a bounce for a few days until April 18 (Thu) followed by another decline into the April 24 (Wed).

 

 Apr 15 (Mon) Major Low ?
Apr 18 (Thu) High
Apr 23-24 (Tue-Wed) Low

Bounce
May 9 (Thu) Major Low ?

May 24 (Fri) Major High
  Jul 24 (Wed) Major Low

 

Today is April 14 (Sun) and we're looking at this forecast as being very similar. But there are several different variations of this particular pattern. The most reliable one so far has been the year 2000 market. It is repeating almost exactly what happened in April of 2000 and that low came in on April 14. But we are looking for a low around April 23-24 (Tue-Wed), another bounce and another low around May 9 (Thu). The May 9th low may not be lower than the market is right now.

The analogs we're using are the year 2000, the 1996 market and the 2006 market. All of which are connected to the present market and you can see the overlap of the 1996 and the 2006 markets and how they go forward is extremely similar but not identical.

They both have a high late May, they both have a low late July. But from now until late May they have different variations on how they go forward. So at this point one needs to be cautious about expecting continued lower prices because the fourth wave does not have to be a big decline. It's after the Elliott fifth wave that you'd expect to see a major decline. 

 

After this whole correction phase is over we're expecting a new high by May 24 (Fri), a strong rally in the month of May and then after that a very big decline from May 24 (Fri) down into July 24 (Wed) area. That could be a very significant short position for those who want to go short or at least one once a hedge, one's long positions during that time. After that July low the market should again rebound strongly and by the end of the year make new highs.

So we're looking at a fourth wave correction which is probably going to end either in the next two weeks or it could be as late as May 9 (Thu) and then the fifth wave rally until late May followed by an ABC meaningful correction of the whole move from October 27th until May 24th that whole up move should be corrected in the two months after that. So if you're looking for a big decline it's not likely to happen now. It's more likely to happen after the end of May. 

 

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (April 14, 2024) - Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions SOON. (video)

 Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | April 2024

 

 

See also:
Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

S&P 500 Bear Reversal - Gann's Time and Price Overbalance | Robert Miner

YM and RTY have already made Bear Reversal Signal. S&P and NQ should soon confirm. Gann's time and price overbalance signals: A daily close below 5283 would be an 'overbalance of price' and strong signal the trend should be net Bear for 3-4 weeks or longer.

 

Robert Miner (April 10, 2024) @ X

 

 

S&P 500 Update (April 12, 2024)

S&P 500 - All Correction Criteria Triggered | Lines On A Chart by Tom

All three correction criteria (Trend, Breadth & Momentum) were triggered:

1. Price trades below the short duration moving average (20 day exponential) — signifying the loss of the short term uptrend
2. Breadth turns negative — more stocks make new lows versus new highs
3. A concluding momentum interruption

Today marks the first instance since July of 2023 where all three correction criteria have been triggered:

1. The S&P closed 5160, below the short term moving average (5183)
2. Market breadth as measured by Net New Highs (middle panel) recorded as negative
3. Momentum (lower panel) remains negative following the 6th momentum interruption at the beginning of April

The activation of all three correction criteria has historically preceded significant market declines. For reference, see the chart from the opening March letter “When Will the Market Top?”

With all three criteria now active, the likelihood of a meaningful correction in the market increases significantly. As discussed in previous weeks, the correction targets for the S&P 500 are set at 4800, with a broader range between 4500 and 4600, representing a potential decline of 7% to 12%. I think it is very likely that hibernation for the bear participant is over.

Quoted from:
Lines On A Chart by Tom - Apr 10, 2024

The Strongest of all Warriors | Leo Tolstoy

 Count Lev Nikolayevich Tolstoy, at 58, in 1886, on the road, 

on his own, like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone.

» The majority of the people of that time paid not attention to the general course of things, but were guided only by the personal interests of the day. And those people were the most useful figures of that time. The strongest of all warriors are these two: Time and Patience. «

 

Leo Tolstoy, 

'War and Peace'.

1869

Construction of Hell in the Modern Era | Alexander Dugin

When did everything go wrong? In the era of the great geographical discoveries. By crossing the forbidden boundary of the Pillars of Hercules, Western Europe committed an act of irreversible transgression. This was fatal. The place of Atlantis is at the bottom.

 » The cycle of hell construction is almost complete. «

[...] Five hundred years ago, Western Europe began to systematically lose its sanity. And it went mad because once having begun to go mad, eventually you will go mad. Thus, four anomalies were formed.

1. Atheism and materialism in the scientific worldview, based on nominalism and a pathological Protestant ideology, were prevalent. Even then, it could have been concluded that the West was entering an Antichrist mode, with all things Western and modern irreversibly marked by it. The British pseudo-Empire marked the beginning of hypertrophied Atlanticism. The Anglo-Saxons embodied the biblical Leviathan. In the twentieth century, the baton was passed to the USA, but the dominance of the sea civilisation is England’s legacy.
2. The Middle Ages and its Indo-European tri-functional ideology, Catholicism, and Empire were rejected and ridiculed, replaced by a form of capitalism that was pathological in all respects. Ideologically, it later diverged into liberalism (the main form of mental degeneration), nationalism, and an inverted version that acknowledged its foundational principles — socialism. Any ideological movement within the system of capitalism was doomed to mimicry and collapse. Capitalism is absolutely totalitarian. As Deleuze showed, capitalism culminates in schizophrenia.
3. The philosophy of the modern era split (without warning) into an eccentric continuation of the classical tradition and into destructive perversions in solidarity with materialism and the externalism of science. This caused systematic confusion — a semantic shift in interpretations. Thought struggled in the nets like a deer, sometimes breaking through. But where there was breakthrough and where agony, no one reliably knew; often everything appeared to be strictly the opposite.
4. Culture began to transition into civilisation (according to Spengler), cooling down but not without excesses — from time to time, an unpredictable genius discerned the essence of the thickening darkness and pierced it with a shining needle. Overall, culture was deliberately sliding into hell.

Russia suddenly found itself at war with all this — without wishing, understanding, preparing, or expecting it at all. Russia was placed by an invisible hand in the position it now finds itself. Now, against all odds, we must — institutionally! — respond to all the challenges of the civilisation of the Antichrist, including the challenge of technology. All the electronic devices with which the West has equipped humanity turned out to have a catch — through them, it turns out, someone unknown collects information about everyone in order to then rule unchallenged.

 

 On April 4, the day of the 75th anniversary of the founding
of NATO, lightning struck the torch of the Statue of Liberty.

What people hide the most are their sins. They are of interest to Big Brother. He records them and lets them in when needed. Techno-dependence is the most perfect tool of the devil and his civilisation. We rejoice in digitalisation — we help the devil rule us. But what are oceans of sins if not a field of madness? The cycle of hell construction is almost complete. In its way — only our desperate Special Military Operation. Well, how do you propose we interpret it?

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin on X
April 05, 2024

 

See also:
Michael Millerman (2019) - Introduction to Alexander Dugin's 'Fourth Political Theory' (video)

Israel attacked Iran | Alexander Dugin

Israel attacked Iran. In Syria, which is not Israel or Palestine. This is an act of aggression. Now Iran has no choice but to attack Israel. With all the forces of the Resistance. This war will be started by the Shiites, but at some point it cannot but become a war of all Muslims.

  » Everyone can see the tactics that are used to defeat the enemy in war.

But what no one can see is the strategy from which great victory arises. «
Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

We must take into account timing: Biden does not want it at all, as his priority is the election and support for Ukraine against Russians, but Trump, on the other hand, does not care about Russians, but Israel is dear to him. 

 

Therefore, Tehran has every reason to start a war with Israel as soon as possible. Under Biden and before Trump. The US and NATO will definitely get involved, but with great reluctance. In the meantime Russians will take Kiev and strengthen dramatically anti-Western pole. That's where Trump will come in or civil war will break out in the US. And the world will already be irreversibly multipolar.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin on X
April 05, 2024

Compassion, Love and Truth | Princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca

The compassion we are speaking of, this rahmah that marks the beginning of every sura of the Quran, was translated as “true charity” or “purest love” by famous Catholic prelates and French theologians of the XVIIth century. They had heard of a great woman saint discovered by the crusaders among the Saracens of Palestine and, believing her to be a Christian, they devoted monumental eulogies to none other than Rabi’a al-‘Adawyya, describing her as the “portrait of true compassion”. This remarkable woman, whose passionate poems are still memorized and chanted from Malaysia to Mauretania, is known in Islam as shahidat al-‘ishq al-ilahi, the true witness of God’s love.

 » In the West as in the East, the virtues of compassion, true love, witnessing
Truth and dying for it have been recognized as an essentially feminine vocation. «

But shahid does not only mean witness in Arabic. Just as in Greek, were the word martys - meaning witness - becomes martyr in the New Testament, the word shahid in the Quran denotes someone who dies out of devotion to God. The first martyr of Islam was a woman, Sumayya. She was the sixth person to embrace the faith, right after the beginning of the Revelation to Prophet Muhammad. She was tortured for days by the polytheists of Mecca under the blazing sun and finally stabbed and impaled with a spear in front of her young son. But she remained steadfast and died as a martyr, the everlasting first witness of Islam.

In my country, Sicily, the patron saints, miraculous healers whose sacred veils protect from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, breast cancer and rape, are all women, young virgins starved to death or blinded or burnt alive or torn apart for their fortitude and determination. Their luminous path is still very much alive in our people. It would therefore seem that through the ages and across religions, in the West as in the East, the virtues of compassion, true love, witnessing Truth and dying for it have been recognized as an essentially feminine vocation.

Speech of Princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca, 

February 26, 2024.

And yet, when a year and a half ago Darya Dugina, a young philosopher who represented Europe at its best, with her ability to fuse Greek metaphysics and Christian tradition, was brutally murdered in a terrorist attack, no Roman prelate celebrated her as the champion of devotion, no outraged feminist called for international sanctions for the crime, no NGO nominated her for a human rights award.  

 

Why? Is it just because Darya was Russian and proud to be part of a nation which she described as “capable of compassion and empathy”? Is it because according to her, unlike the competing Western “wolf-man”, the Russian soul has a softness, a lack of rigid rationality, which it turns into strength, reconnecting the world and healing its wounds?

  » She had revealed the imperative choice that awaits all women today. «

No. It is not so. Nobody had taken the pain to listen to this extraordinary polyglot philosopher, who was also an athletic, elegant, artistic, modern woman. Darya's desire for perfection and beauty and her eagerness to contemplate the absolute essence of Truth were simply hidden behind the appearance of a young journalist. Like all her martyred predecessors, she was an ancilla abscondita, a devoted servant of God protected behind a veil of normality.

It was only when, confronting the Empire of Chaos, Darya raised her name Platonova like a flag to affirm that being a woman today means choosing between two opposite archetypes, that finally the enemy noticed her. Because she had revealed the imperative choice that awaits all women today. The deadly and compelling confrontation that should have remained concealed under gender issues and feminist grievances. Either to be allured by the triumphant role model of Dido, the Phoenician queen who invoked the forces of the underworld to curse with a satanic ritual her lover Aeneas, that she failed to distract from his divine mission. Or to follow at tremendous risk the sacred path of Dante’s Beatrice, the Perfect Being who leads her man beyond the highest levels of Paradise up to the contemplation of the Holy Throne.

Daria has shown us the way to follow if we seek to build the multipolar world from above, contemplating the stars and leaving the sewers behind. It is the duty of all us women who are here today and believe that compassion is our mission and tradition our steed, to pick up the torch of charity and devotion. That inner flame of the heart that preserved Daria’s body and kept it intact, miraculously uncorrupted by the murderous fire, will lead us and protect us. It is up to us to pick it up and carry it on, right now, lighting the path of mankind, blacked out by violence, ambition and arrogance. 

 

Princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca

Speech at the Multipolarity Forum in Moscow - February 26, 2024

ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube | Darya Filipenka

This is my personal recommendation to study the ICT YouTube channel. I truly believe that this information is enough to understand how the ICT concepts works.  

 

 

ICT Syllabus for Beginners:

Part 1: 

1. Real Money Real Results - First Year Trading Expectations - Part 1 of 3

2. Real Money Real Results - First Year Trading Expectations - Part 2 of 3
3. Real Money Real Results - First Year Trading Expectations - Part 3 of 3

Part 2: 

1. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 01 - Elements Of A Trade Setup
2. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 02 - Growing Small Accounts
3. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 03 - Timeframe Selection & Defining Setups
4. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 04 - Interest Rate Effects On Currency Trades

 After Month 4:  

4.1. Bridge Builder - ICT Concepts Overview
4.2. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Advanced Gap Theory Introduction
4.3. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance & Institutional Order Flow 

5. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges

6. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 06 - Ideal Swings Conditions For Any Market

7. ICT  Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - Short Term Trading Using Monthly & Weekly Ranges

After Month 7: 

7.1. ICT Mentorship 2023 - T.G.I.F. Setup

8. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 08 - Essentials To ICT Daytrading

9. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 09 - The Sentiment Effect
10. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Commitment Of Traders
11. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 11 - Commodity Mega-Trades
12. ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 12 - Long Term Top Down Analysis

Part 3: 

1. ICT Institutional Price Action - Micro-Market Structure & Time & Price Concepts
2. ICT Forex - What New Traders Should Focus On
3. ICT Charter Price Action Model 9 - One Shot One Kill
4. ICT Charter Price Action Model 9 - One Shot One Kill Trade Plan & Algorithmic Theory

Part 4: 

1. ICT Mentorship 2022 Introduction + ICT Mentorship 2023 - Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro
2. 2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro
3.  ICT Forex - Understanding The ICT Judas Swing
4. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Deep Dive Into Institutional Order Flow

Part 5: Market Maker Models

1. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Amplified Lesson
2. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.2 - Amplified Lesson
3. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Universal Trading Model

4. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Algorithmic Theory

5. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.3 - Supplementary Lesson

6. ICT Charter Price Action Model 7 - Universal Trading Model

7. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Maker Models

Reference: 

Darya Filipenka (March 27, 2024) @ Twitter/X

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

2016 Premium ICT Mentorship - Core Content Lectures + 2016 Premium ICT Mentorship - Core Content Notes
ICT Forex - Market Maker Primer Course
ICT Market Maker Forex Series
2022 ICT Mentorship + 2022 ICT Mentorship - Notes | Dan Dowd
2023 ICT Mentorship + 2023 ICT Mentorship Gems | Sir Pickle

ICT Trading on NFP and FOMC Days | Darya Filipenka

 

» We wait for that initial run. 

I don't care if it goes higher or lower. 

I do know that the first run is generally the fake move. 

It's like a Judas swing. 

And then they keep it where it ran to. « 

 

Michael J. Huddleston, 2023

Reference:
Darya Filipenka (March 20, 2024) @ Twitter/X
Michael J. Huddleston (July 8, 2023) - Trading Taboo Days: NFP, FOMC & Mondays (video) 

 

ICT Price Action Lecture: Non-Farm Payroll Trade Conditions.

Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | April 2024

 

 

The SoLunar Rhythm in April 2024.

 

[ oftentimes true : ]

In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

 

ooo0ooo

 

 No Turning Points during April 2024 in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer.

 

ooo0ooo

 

 Mar 16 (Sat)
Apr 04 (Thu)
Apr 07 (Sun)
Apr 15 (Mon)
Apr 21 (Sun)
Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)

 

 Cosmic Cluster Days | April 2024

 

 

 

Chinese 24 Solar Terms | April 2024

 

2024 03 31 (Sun) = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees     positive
2024 04 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees     negative
2024 04 13 (Sat) = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees     negative
2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees     negative
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees     neutral
 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | April 2024

The Path of the Moon's Shadow during the April 8 Total Solar Eclipse

During the Great North American Total Solar Eclipse on April 8 (a Monday) 2024 the path of totality of the Moon's shadow runs northeast across the Pacific Ocean, Sinaloa, Texas, Upstate New York, Newfoundland, the Labrador Sea, and the North Atlantic Ocean. For some moment Nazas in Durango will be the darkest place on Earth. And the invisible true lunar nodes are performing their particular choreography again.

Amazon's Alexa on COVID-19 Vaccines, Social Credit, Cryptos & US Civil War

Alexa was asked about the effects of graphene on the body, social credit linked to vaccines, and the possibility of civil war in the US. Amazon's technology responded with surprising claims: all its concepts coincide with “conspiracy” around the near future.

• Injected graphene causes mitochondrial apoptosis, thrombi and immune cell activation.
• Vaccinations will be mandatory for access to digital currencies. 
• Health data will have the potential to become a form of digital currency and will allow income to be earned.
• The unvaccinated will see their credit score affected.
• A threatened military coup in the US could become a reality after the 2024 election.
• The United States is dangerously close to civil war. Many of the divisions and forms of disinformation that prevailed in the last civil war are occurring now.

 

The Baltimore Bridge Moment

Priceless. A gem for historians.

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan

One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat. 

We are not yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028. 

 

Quoted from:
Tom McClellan (Mar 28, 2024) - 'Unpleasant Time' Ahead For Stock Market. (video)